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April 14th - Morning Market Commentary

04/14/2021
April 14th - Morning Market Commentary

Grains are solidly higher in overnight trading:

Corn + 10 cents/bu (May @ 5.90)

Soybeans + 9 ½ cents/bu (May @ 13.99)

Chi Wheat + 8 ¾ cents/bu (May @ 6.38 ½ )

Cdn $ -0.00155 (79.635 cents)

WTI Crude Oil +1.06/barrel (61.24)

Grain futures are currently trading at their highs for the overnight session.  There is not a lot of “new” news to justify the bounce in prices, other that ongoing Supply and Demand concerns remain in play, and that cool/dry weather across the USA Midwest is slowing hopes of early planting progress for both corn and soybeans.  It is so early that there are not realistic fears of the crop not getting planted, but with the market primed for needing massive corn and soybean acres in 2021, any perceived delays will be supportive to the market.

There is also some buzz in social media that grains futures are strong from a technical perspective, and that might lead to new speculative buying coming into the market.

Yesterday saw USA precipitation limited to parts of the northern Plains and to fringe areas of the South, the USA Midwest was mostly dry.  Dry/cool forecasts persist for the rest of the week, with next week looking to remain cool, with only scattered precipitation possibilities.  Argentina and Brazil were dry yesterday.  Argentina will see some showers in the north over then next 5 days, while Brazil sees some decent shower activity through the weekend, although central/southern regions will remained stressed due to ongoing dryness, which continues to raise questions about the safrinha corn production potential.

Tomorrow, NOPA will release it’s March soybean crush statistics, which are expected to show a big jump higher, after February’s disappointing crush totals (due to the mid month frigid conditions).  Some analysts are looking for a record March crush, while others are a little less optimistic – we could see some volatility in old crop soy prices as a result.

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