Grains are lower at midday:
Corn -7 cent/bu (May @ 5.70 1/4)
Soybeans – 21 cents/bu (May @ 13.82)
Chi Wheat – 9 1/2 cents/bu (May @ 6.29 1/4)
Cdn $ -0.00020 (79.635 cents)
WTI Crude Oil +0.32/barrel (59.64)
The weekly grain inspections report was released today and was on par with expectations. Corn export shipments were reported at a 7-week low, however, still above the 55.1 million bushels per week needed to hit the USDA target for the year. As of right now, corn export shipments to date exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit the USDA’s revised target by 77 million bushels. Soybean export shipments fell to a 10-month low, still surpassing the weekly pace of 9.7 million bushels per week needed to hit the USDA’s revised target. Soybeans are currently exceeding the seasonal pace to hit the new target by 227 million bushels. Wheat shipments exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit the USDA’s target by 22 million bushels.
| In Million Bushels | Actual | Estimates | Last Week | Last Year |
| Corn | 62.4 | 47.2-82.7 | 85.1 | 67.9 |
| Soybeans | 12.0 | 3.7-14.7 | 14.1 | 33.1 |
| Wheat | 16.8 | 11-20.2 | 23.4 | 17.6 |
March corn shipments turned out to be crazy high, but April looks to be easing off…
The USDA is set to release the crop progress and conditions report this afternoon once the markets are closed. These reports become increasingly important the longer we go into the growing season as it greatly influences yield and therefore carryout.
The USDA also announced a set of flash sale announcements this morning:
-132,000 mt of soybeans to China for 2021/22
-110,000 mt of soybeans to Bangladesh (half for 2020/21 and half for 2021/22)
That totals 8.9 million bushels, but it is not enough to entice soybeans to further ration. Traders have been worried about what the reemergence of ASF in China means for soybean demand, so this new crop sale is reassuring (given it doesn’t force old crop cancellations).
Weather, weather, weather…
Some of the Midwest is dry, but overall in the corn belt, the last 30 days were the most wet on record since 1979 . This includes areas of Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota.
Forecasts are showing the potential for SNOW in Kansas later this week in quantities up to 6-10 inches. This would not be great for the wheat crop, and could promote an increase in weather premium.
Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies are struggling with dry weather, risking spring wheat planting and yields.